11 May 2023 12:34:55
Just read an interesting article about tonight's game between West Ham and AZ Alkmaar and the role of one Billy Beane who was according to the article the original personal responsible for the Moneyball approach to recruitment. The article compares the relative sizes of the clubs (West Ham being significantly bigger) against the success of the two clubs, and how AZ success has been built on the back of Moneyball and the two English clubs that are adopting this approach Brighton and Brentford are by there own standards punching significantly above there weight. It's really interesting and provides great food for thought.
11 May 2023 15:46:12
LOTM, I also find it really interesting, as you say Brentford and Brighton have both found a successful approach to transfer dealing. I often think of our transfer dealings and whilst we do have some success in our dealings, however i think overall our missess far outweigh our hits. In recent times these are the players that in my view, didn't add the quality we needed to push on. My list of Bailey, Traore, Digne, Chambers, Olsen, Sansom, Freddie, Targett, Ings, Dendonker, all of which didn't really improve our side. LOTM who is on your list of players that didn't improve us.
11 May 2023 17:21:33
So looking at our business in the season we gained promotion up until now, I will break our dealings down into 4 categories successes, failures, jury’s out and never given a chance.
Successes:
Martinez, McGinn, Mings, Konsa, Cash, Young, Watkins, Luiz Kamara
Failures:
Olsen, Digne, Nakamba, Samatta, Wesley, Targett, Chambers, Engels, Guilbert
Jury’s out:
Bailey, Traore, Dendoncker, Moreno
Never given a chance:
Sanson,
While this might be a little controversial particularly given the views of most on Traore, Bailey and Moreno, but I feel that with both Traore and Bailey they are good players but we just don’t seem to know how to get the best out of them I think it’s likely both will be sold but that’s football I guess all about opinions. With Moreno he is technically gifted great going forward but is wanting defensively and I think he will be found out against better teams.
With Sanson I feel sorry for the guy looks a good player on the ball but has never been given a run of games to prove himself whether that’s down to injury or the fact that the coaches don’t rate him I don’t know but I think he will do a good job for someone given the chance.
11 May 2023 23:11:35
There was a very interesting article regarding the Moneyball approach I read just yesterday. Brentford are a typically example - no academy system anymore - too expensive. They look at the player stats in detail and recruit from the lower divisions and then sell on in 2-3 years time. We keep banging on about our academy but does it really either feed the first team or produce any significant profit against the cost of running it ?
12 May 2023 00:02:27
Targett was our player of the season the season before last after an indifferent 1st season.
12 May 2023 01:54:33
Also sold for profit if I remember correct
12 May 2023 06:18:52
Liverpool tried the money ball approach years ago when they signed Downing (most crosses) and Andy Carrol (most goals scored from crosses) didn't quite work out for them.
12 May 2023 10:02:10
Targett did have a better second season than first but was quickly shown the door by Gerrard, he was another one who seemed to be drawn towards the ball and quite often found himself marking thin air! . I think it says it all that he is being kept out of the Newcastle side by a player who isn’t a left back by trade in Dan Burn.
Re his sale I thought we sold him for the same as we bought him for £15 million but I stand to be corrected.
12 May 2023 12:22:58
Bucktooth, Carroll and Downing were already established names when Liverpool signed them and they paid top dollar for both that’s not what Moneyball is about it’s about using stats to identify players who fit with how you want to play but at a relatively cheap price and then selling them on at a vast profit, Liverpool’s approach wasn’t Moneyball as such. So what Brentford did when they signed Watkins Maupay and Benrahma for something like £6.5 million and then sold them for £78 million that’s an example of how Moneyball should work.
12 May 2023 13:37:48
LoTM, so the reverse is Wesley, Sammatta, Bailey, Ings, Sanson, Traore, Digne Nakamba Appreciate some haven't been sold however we are going to take a big hit, if and when we do.
12 May 2023 14:31:35
That’s right Scotty, but we didn’t use Moneyball to inform our recruitment strategy. But to be fair Moneyball in whatever sport it’s been applied in has helped clubs at either the bottom or in the middle of the sporting pyramid achieve ‘success’ it’s enabled the likes of Brentford, Brighton and AZ Alkmaar in Holland to be financially solvent and in Alkmaar case qualify for Europe on a fairly consistent basis I don’t think the approach has enabled any club to win the league in which it plays in, and given it takes a while for the benefits to work through I think that's why it doesn’t really interest the top clubs who are striving for success year on year.